What happens on prediction platforms can steer traditional markets, NYSE chief says

Prediction marketplace outcomes are being utilized arsenic inputs for however players woody with accepted fiscal markets, NYSE President Lynn Martin said astatine Mar-a-Lago connected Wednesday.

Feb 18, 2026, 4:40 p.m.

PALM BEACH, Fla. — Prediction markets are starting to play a relation successful however accepted fiscal markets move, New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin said Wednesday astatine the World Liberty forum successful Palm Beach.

“It was precise wide for us… that prediction markets [were being used] arsenic an input to accepted markets,” she said astatine the lawsuit hosted astatine Mar-a-Lago, pointing to a infinitesimal during the 2024 U.S. statesmanlike predetermination erstwhile S&P futures spiked unexpectedly. According to Martin, the determination was aboriginal explained by crypto-based prediction level Polymarket having shown Donald Trump arsenic the apt victor earlier different sources did.

The remark highlights a increasing consciousness among organization players of however on-chain accusation tin power marketplace behavior. Unlike accepted polling oregon slow-moving forecasts, Polymarket’s real-time pricing offers a benignant of crowdsourced probability provender that traders whitethorn find useful.

The NYSE's involvement goes beyond observation. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, made a $2 cardinal strategical investment successful Polymarket successful October, signaling that the world's largest banal speech relation sees a aboriginal successful blockchain-based forecasting tools.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who took bureau precocious past year, echoed Martin's comments connected prediction markets' relation successful society, saying they person nationalist information implications and enactment arsenic a cheque connected accepted paper journalism. He besides referenced their relation successful amusement and sports — the second being an country authorities regulators are paying peculiar attraction to.

"The states person truly led this run of unfastened warfare against markets that are successful the jurisdiction of the CFTC," Selig said. "The CFTC has for decades [overseen] prediction markets."

He referenced the amicus brief the CFTC filed earlier this week successful the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals successful 1 case, which hours aboriginal rejected prediction marketplace supplier Kalshi's petition for a enactment against the authorities of Nevada's efforts to shutter its sports-related prediction markets.

"We're going to combat this, we're going to marque definite our markets are escaped and just and person integrity," helium said. "We won't person authorities gaming commissions telling america however to modulate our markets."

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