Will Bitcoin price recover in July?

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst monthly loss since mid-2022, with BTC down astir 18.5% successful June arsenic terms struggles to clasp the intelligence $60,000 enactment level.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Will Bitcoin’s downside momentum widen successful July, oregon is BTC preparing for a recovery?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s liquidity representation shows a large short-liquidation “magnet zone” adjacent $67,600.
• BTC has historically gained 7.6% connected mean successful July, portion midterm-year seasonality points to an adjacent stronger 10.3% mean return.

Bitcoin whitethorn deed $75,000 successful July

July whitethorn go a "bullish period for Bitcoin," according to expert Fleh, who predicted BTC terms to rally toward $75,000 adjacent month.

The bullish thesis is based connected Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, which shows a ample attraction of abbreviated liquidation levels sitting supra the existent price.

On the monthly chart, the strongest disposable liquidity clump sits adjacent $67,645, wherever the illustration shows astir $247.39 cardinal successful liquidation leverage and astir $2.26 cardinal successful cumulative abbreviated liquidation leverage.

Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (1 month). Source: CoinGlass

For beginners, specified clusters are often called “magnet zones.” When galore leveraged positions are concentrated astir the aforesaid terms area, the marketplace tin determination toward that portion due to the fact that liquidations make forced buying oregon selling pressure.

In this case, important liquidity sits supra Bitcoin’s existent terms adjacent $60,000.

If BTC rebounds and pushes toward $67,600, abbreviated sellers whitethorn beryllium forced to adjacent their positions. Since closing shorts requires buying Bitcoin back, that tin adhd caller upside unit and substance a abbreviated squeeze.

"I deliberation $BTC bottoms present astatine 60k for now, targeting 75k to the upside earlier immoderate accidental of lower," Fleh said successful a Saturday post.

BTC rises 7.6% connected mean successful July

Bitcoin’s humanities monthly returns besides enactment Fleh’s bullish July outlook.

BTC has returned a 7.6% summation connected mean successful July, making it 1 of its stronger months aft a typically weaker June, which shows an mean instrumentality of -1.40%, according to CoinGlass information highlighted by expert CGT_Trader.

Bitcoin monthly returns tracking the July show successful since 2013. Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader

The inclination has appeared adjacent during carnivore marketplace years.

For instance, Bitcoin roseate 20.96% successful July 2018 and 16.8% successful July 2022. More recently, BTC gained 2.95% successful July 2024 and 8.13% successful July 2025, strengthening the lawsuit for different greenish period ahead.

A abstracted midterm-year seasonality illustration besides shows that- Bitcoin has averaged a 10.3% summation during the month, its strongest monthly instrumentality successful specified years.

Bitcoin show by period during US mid-term predetermination years. Source: More Crypto Online

That compares with an mean 17% nonaccomplishment successful June, pointing to the anticipation of a post-sell-off mean-reversion bounce.

Based connected Bitcoin’s existent terms adjacent $60,000, its humanities July mean instrumentality of 7.6% projects a determination toward astir $64,500, portion the stronger midterm-year mean of 10.3% points to astir $66,100.

A repetition of Bitcoin’s bear-market July rebounds from 2022 and 2018 would enactment BTC betwixt $70,000 and $72,500, portion a 2020-style July rally would bring Fleh’s $75,000 people wrong reach.

BTC's dip beneath the 200-week SMA whitethorn widen slide

Bitcoin’s ongoing driblet beneath its 200-week elemental moving mean (200-day SMA, the bluish line) adjacent $62,445 raises the hazard of further downside successful July.

BTC/USD play chart. Source: TradingView

A akin nonaccomplishment of semipermanent moving-average enactment preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 carnivore market, erstwhile BTC continued little earlier forming a bottom.

Related: Bitcoin faces caller capitulation hazard arsenic 50K BTC moved astatine a loss

Bitcoin's carnivore emblem breakdown raises the likelihood of a terms diminution toward $55,000 successful July unless BTC rapidly reclaims the 200-day SMA.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: TradingView