Willy Woo: 'Peak fear' but on-chain metrics say it’s not a bear market

Bitcoin expert and co-founder of bundle steadfast Hypersheet Willy Woo believes that on-chain metrics amusement that BTC is not successful a carnivore marketplace contempt observing “peak fear” levels.

Speaking connected the What Bitcoin Did podcast hosted by Peter McCormack connected Jan. 30, Woo cited key metrics specified arsenic a beardown fig of agelong word holders (wallets holding for 5 months oregon longer) and growing rates of accumulation suggest that the marketplace has not flipped the power to carnivore territory:

“Structurally on-chain, it’s not a carnivore marketplace setup. Even though I would accidental we’re astatine highest fear. No uncertainty astir it, radical are truly scared, which is typically [...] an accidental to buy.”

I conjecture BTC is successful request lately pic.twitter.com/5h1IeMT2lK

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) January 29, 2022

In the abbreviated term, Woo noted that “you don’t often get this benignant of pullback without it alleviation bouncing” and that a imaginable capitulation down to the $20,000 doesn’t look feasible arsenic it would replicate the 2018 clang into a carnivore marketplace successful the abstraction of conscionable 3 months arsenic opposed to a year.

The terms of BTC has declined astir 44% since its all-time precocious levels of $69,000 successful November, and the expert cited organization futures trading arsenic a cardinal crushed down this dependable diminution and level show implicit the past 3 months.

Woo suggested that the expanding influx of mainstream traders and rotation retired of BTC futures markets implicit the past fewer years has importantly changed the marketplace operation of BTC successful which the terms straight correlates to “risk-on risk-off from macro traders looking astatine accepted stocks.”

“You cognize backmost successful 2019 to 2020, if you looked on-chain astatine what the investors were doing, they were accumulating but you conscionable couldn't spot immoderate interaction of terms due to the fact that the terms was truly dictated by traders connected the futures exchanges,” helium said.

The expert cited a ample fig of semipermanent hodlers who haven’t sold for much than 5 months, traders who stopped selling astir the $40,000 portion on with a steady complaint of accumulation arsenic cardinal reasons to stay bullish.

Related: Bitcoin terms closes successful connected $40K, but pro traders are inactive skeptical

“Most of the coins person been sitting determination for longer than 5 months and radical who bash that, they’ve held connected for 5 months, they’re not selling astatine a loss, they volition merchantability erstwhile there’s nett to beryllium had and you’ll spot that whenever it breaks retired of similar all-time highs and does a truly beardown rally."— Willy Woo (@woonomic) February 1, 2021

He besides argued that a cardinal indicator for carnivore markets is usually erstwhile “newbs” oregon caller coin hodlers are successful the majority:

“The 2018 carnivore was astatine highest caller guys holding the coins, and the rhythm repeats. Those guys either sell, oregon the ones that don’t go hardened hodlers and they merchantability connected the adjacent rally erstwhile it goes adjacent higher.”