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XRP (XRP) has mislaid much than 40% since hitting a multi-year precocious adjacent $3.40 successful January, and onchain information suggests the downtrend could deepen successful the weeks ahead.
“Denial” preceding past 75-90% XRP crashes is back
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode suggests the token whitethorn beryllium heading for different extended downturn.
The metric, which gauges the aggregate unrealized gains oregon losses of XRP holders, has historically served arsenic a reliable barometer of imaginable inclination reversals. In past marketplace cycles, NUPL has peaked successful the alleged “euphoria” portion conscionable earlier large terms tops.
In 2018, XRP soared supra $3.00 arsenic NUPL signaled utmost optimism, lone to illness 90% to beneath $0.30 arsenic sentiment deteriorated done “denial” and into “capitulation.”
XRP NUPL humanities show chart. Source: Glassnode
A akin signifier played retired successful 2021 erstwhile XRP deed $1.96 earlier sliding 75% to $0.50 amid a crisp displacement from euphoria to fear.
As of March 2025, XRP’s NUPL has erstwhile again entered the “denial” zone, with the terms trading astir $2.50 pursuing a beardown rally. If the signifier holds, XRP could look further downsides akin to the carnivore markets successful 2018 and 2021.
XRP/USD play terms chart. Source: TradingView
XRP present faces akin risks, trading sideways betwixt $1.80 and $3.40, pursuing a blistering 585% rally successful conscionable 2 months.
The rally accelerated aft pro-crypto campaigner Donald Trump won the US statesmanlike election, portion speculation grew astir Ripple’s imaginable triumph successful its SEC lawsuit and the imaginable support of a spot XRP ETF successful 2025.
Related: SEC dropping XRP lawsuit was ‘priced in’ since Trump’s election: Analysts
As a effect of these supportive fundamentals, immoderate traders said XRP’s ongoing consolidation whitethorn yet pb to a breakout. That includes marketplace expert Stellar Babe, who anticipates XRP’s terms to summation 450%.
Technical fractal suggests XRP is topping retired
XRP’s play illustration suggests a bearish fractal from 2021 whitethorn beryllium unfolding again.
In some 2021 and 2025, the XRP terms formed a section apical portion the RSI printed a little high, signaling bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum.
XRP/USD play terms chart. Source: TradingView
Back successful 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke beneath the 50-week (the reddish wave) and 200-week (the bluish wave) exponential moving averages (EMA) supports.
In 2025, XRP has again shown a akin RSI divergence, followed by a 40%-plus diminution from its caller highs. It present risks an extended decline toward the 50-week EMA astatine astir $1.58, down astir 21.6% from the existent terms levels by June.
If the correction deepens and breaks beneath the 50-week EMA support, past suggests XRP could descent further toward the 200-week EMA astir $0.87, oregon astir 60% from the existent terms levels.
This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.
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