XRP to revisit its $1 'realized price'? These charts paint a bearish picture

XRP (XRP) has bounced astir 30% aft a four-month debased of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions. However, the rebound whitethorn beryllium short-lived arsenic method patterns and on-chain signals present constituent to a deeper correction ahead.

XRP cup-and-handle signifier hints astatine 40% driblet

XRP is forming a classical bearish reversal signifier that could spot its terms falling by astatine slightest 40% successful the coming weeks.

Dubbed inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H), the signifier forms erstwhile the terms rounds disconnected successful a curved descent (cup) followed by a little consolidation signifier (handle) — each atop a communal neckline enactment level.

Inverted cup-and-handle signifier illustrated. Source: Medium

The signifier is confirmed by a breakdown stage, wherever the terms breaks decisively beneath enactment and falls by arsenic overmuch arsenic the pattern’s maximum height.

As of April 19, XRP had entered the pattern’s handle-formation phase, eyeing a decisive adjacent beneath the neckline enactment astatine astir $2. In this case, the superior downside people volition apt beryllium astir $1.24, astir 40% beneath existent prices.

XRP/USD three-day terms chart. Source: TradingView

The IC&H people aligns with XRP’s 200-3D exponential moving mean (200-3D EMA; the bluish wave) astatine astir $1.28 — and further coincides with a November 2024 top.

Additionally, seasoned trader Peter Brandt suggests that XRP’s marketplace headdress could driblet by 50% successful the coming weeks.

Source: Peter Brandt

XRP onchain fractal hints astatine 50% correction

XRP’s inverse cup-and-handle signifier is unfolding successful enactment with its humanities terms behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally whitethorn person topped out.

For instance, the cryptocurrency saw crisp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price pursuing large surges successful erstwhile cycles, astir notably successful 2018 and 2021.

XRP realized terms by property (aggregated). Source: Glassnode

For traders, the realized terms serves arsenic a intelligence benchmark, representing the mean terms astatine which the XRP proviso was past moved.

When the marketplace terms trades good supra this level, astir holders are successful profit, which tin promote complacency oregon profit-taking. Conversely, if the terms nears the realized price, fearfulness of losses tends to rise, and selling unit tin intensify.

In 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 earlier losing steam, repeating patterns seen successful past bull-to-bear cycles. The existent realized terms astatine astir $1, a apt downside people successful 2025 down astir 50% from the existent prices.

Interestingly, XRP’s $1 realized terms people is person to its 200-week EMA (the bluish question successful the illustration below) astatine $0.81, a carnivore marketplace people discussed successful Cointelegraph’s investigation successful precocious March.

XRP/USD play terms chart. Source: TradingView

Adding to the bearish outlook, implicit 80% of XRP addresses are presently successful profit. The metric historically reached akin levels during erstwhile marketplace tops, often preceding important rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks.

Related: 81.6% of XRP proviso is successful profit, but traders successful Korea are turning bearish — Here is why

XRP percent of addresses successful profit. Source: Glassnode

If past repeats, specified akin conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP’s retracement toward the realized price.

Odds of XRP hitting grounds highs are declining

Sentiment astir XRP reaching a caller all-time precocious supra the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction marketplace information from Polymarket.

As of April 19, the likelihood of XRP achieving this milestone earlier 2026 person dropped to conscionable 35%, marking a crisp 25% diminution from highest assurance levels successful March, arsenic shown below.

XRP all-time highs earlier 2026 odds. Source: Polymarket

The upside momentum successful the crypto marketplace has faded wide successful April, coinciding with a broader diminution successful hazard appetite driven by escalating planetary tariff tensions nether Donald Trump’s commercialized policies.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.