$43K BTC flipping support? Not anytime soon, according to derivative metrics

Bitcoin (BTC) showed spot connected March 22, posting a 5% summation and investigating the $43,000 resistance. The determination liquidated implicit $150 cardinal worthy of leverage abbreviated positions, those betting connected a declining terms utilizing futures contracts.

Some Twitter analysts property the terms betterment to the Do Kwon, the co-founder of blockchain protocol Terra. During a caller Twitter Spaces speech with expert Udi Wertheimer, Kwon revealed his plans to back the TerraUSD stablecoin with Bitcoin.

Terra's co-founder said "the existent clip that we person to bargain Bitcoin is astir $3 cardinal and volition adhd to that," causing markets to get agitated connected March 21 erstwhile immoderate observers attributed a $125 cardinal Tether (USDT) transaction to Kwon. 

Margin traders are inactive going long

Margin trading allows investors to get cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, expanding returns. For example, 1 tin bargain cryptocurrencies by borrowing Tether and expanding their exposure.

On the different hand, Bitcoin borrowers tin lone abbreviated the cryptocurrency arsenic they stake connected its terms declining. Unlike futures contracts, the equilibrium betwixt borderline longs and shorts isn't ever matched.

OKEx USDT/BTC borderline lending ratio. Source: OKEx

The supra illustration shows that traders person been borrowing much BTC recently, arsenic the ratio decreased from 15 connected March 20 to the existent 7.5. Even though the information remains bullish arsenic the indicator favors stablecoin borrowing, it reached the lowest level since March 9. Considering crypto traders are usually bullish, a borderline lending ratio beneath 3 is deemed unfavorable. Thus, the existent level remains positive, conscionable little assured than 2 days ago.

Option markets did not displacement recently

Currently, it's somewhat hard to discern a absorption successful the market. Still, the 25% delta skew is simply a telling motion whenever arbitrage desks and marketplace makers overcharge for upside oregon downside protection. The 25% delta skew compares akin telephone (buy) and enactment (sell) options. The metric volition crook affirmative erstwhile fearfulness is prevalent due to the fact that the protective enactment options premium is higher than akin hazard telephone options.

The skew indicator volition determination supra 8% if traders fearfulness a Bitcoin terms crash. On the different hand, generalized excitement reflects a antagonistic 8% skew.

Bitcoin 30-day options amusement 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

As displayed above, we exited the 8% "fear" mode connected March 9 and entered a neutral country since then. Still, Tuesday's 5% rally was not capable to displacement the options skew to a neutral-to-bullish zone.

Related: Bitcoin hash complaint whitethorn spot ‘small capitulation’ with trouble acceptable for caller all-time high

Despite the not-so-positive indicator from Bitcoin options, these arbitrage desks and marketplace makers volition beryllium forced to reverse bearish positions erstwhile the terms breaks $45,000 and changes the existent trend.

The OKX borderline lending complaint showed pro traders reducing their bullish bets aft a 13% BTC terms rally successful 10 days, truthful derivatives information provides a somewhat bearish view. For this reason, expecting a pump supra $43,000 close present seems a spot excessively optimistic.

The views and opinions expressed present are solely those of the author and bash not needfully bespeak the views of Cointelegraph. Every concern and trading determination involves risk. You should behaviour your ain probe erstwhile making a decision.