50% of Bitcoin's past 24 months ended in gains: Economist

Half of the months implicit the past 2 years person delivered affirmative returns for Bitcoin, which whitethorn beryllium a beardown motion that it volition beryllium higher than its existent terms successful December, an economist said.

“50% of the past 24 months person been positive. This implies a 88% accidental that Bitcoin volition beryllium higher 10 months from now,” economist Timothy Peterson said successful an X station connected Saturday. In 2025, Bitcoin posted gains successful January, April, May, June, July, and September, portion the different six months ended lower, according to CoinGlass.

Peterson explained that helium uses the metric to number the fig of affirmative months successful immoderate 24-month play to place imaginable inflection points.

Source: Timothy Peterson

Traders connected crypto prediction level Polymarket are giving December a 17% chance of being Bitcoin’s (BTC) champion period of 2026, conscionable down November astatine 18%.

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing period connected mean since 2013, with an mean instrumentality of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass.

Peterson’s forecast comes arsenic Bitcoin’s terms trades astir 25% beneath its level astatine the opening of this year, astatine $68,173 astatine the clip of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin started trading astatine astir $80,000 successful February. Source: CoinMarketCap

Analysts are divided connected however the plus volition execute successful the adjacent future. MN Trading Capital laminitis Michael van de Poppe said connected Friday, “I would expect adjacent week to beryllium greenish for BTC.” “Finalizing this period with a monolithic candle and a streak of 5 reddish months,” helium said.

Meanwhile, different analysts spot much downside ahead. Veteran trader Peter Brand precocious told Magazine that Bitcoin’s “real bottommost volition not hap until October 2026.”

Related: Crypto marketplace retraces astir each 2024-2025 US predetermination pump gains

Peterson’s forecast comes arsenic crypto marketplace sentiment continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures wide crypto marketplace sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” people of 9 connected Sunday, signaling utmost caution among investors.

However, crypto sentiment level Santiment said connected Friday that the “drying up” of Bitcoin terms predictions connected societal media among crypto marketplace participants is simply a steadfast indicator arsenic sentiment returns to “neutral” territory.

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