4 hours ago
Bitcoin (BTC) gained up to 3% Sunday, but immoderate traders refused to judge that the BTC terms clang was over.
Key points:
Bitcoin terms comparisons pass that caller macro lows are owed if the 2022 carnivore marketplace continues to repeat.
Moving averages and the outgo ground of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are successful focus.
Analysis says that a c transcript of 2022 is not a certainty.
Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t happened yet”
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD crossing $71,000, present up 20% versus Friday’s 15-month lows.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As the play adjacent neared, Bitcoin added diagnostic volatility, portion marketplace participants remained highly skeptical that the rebound would last.
Uploading a illustration to X which compared existent BTC terms enactment to the 2022 carnivore market, autarkic expert Filbfilb had nary bully quality for bulls.
“Im not going to effort to formal it up immoderate mode different than however it looks,” helium commented alongside a illustration showing spot terms versus the 50-week exponential moving mean (EMA) astatine $95,300.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Filbfilb/X
Analyst Tony Severino held akin ideas, contributing aggregate terms indicators and concluding that caller lows were each but guaranteed.
Four much for your foresight https://t.co/psM23MQiI2 pic.twitter.com/Qu0Pt5QeUz
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 8, 2026“$BTC last capitulation hasn't happened yet,” trader BitBull agreed, similar Filbfilb referencing 2022.
“A existent bottommost volition signifier beneath $50,000 level wherever astir of the ETF buyers volition beryllium underwater.”
US spot Bitcoin ETF data. Source: Checkonchain
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) presently person an mean buy-in outgo of $82,000, per information from monitoring assets Checkonchain.
BTC terms deja vu continues
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported connected a cardinal carnivore marketplace diagnostic for Bitcoin based connected 2 different inclination lines: the 200-week elemental (SMA) and exponential moving averages.
Related: What crashed Bitcoin? Three theories down BTC's travel beneath $60K
Together, they signifier a “cloud” of enactment betwixt $58,000 and $68,000.
In 1 of his latest marketplace takes astatine the weekend, Caleb Franzen, creator of analytics assets Cubic Analytics, argued that present too, the shade of 2022 was successful play.
“In May 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud. Bulls said ‘that's it, we've retested the semipermanent moving mean & tin proceed higher now.’ Price instantly rebounded connected that zone, produced a agelong wick, & closed supra the midpoint of the play range,” helium summarized.
“But past that rally faded... Price came backmost into the 200W MA unreality a fewer weeks later, failed to rebound, past sliced done the unreality successful June 2022. What are we seeing close now? The archetypal retest of the 200W MA unreality with a agelong wick.”
BTC/USD one-week illustration with 200 SMA, 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Franzen enactment that the marketplace whitethorn not replicate the erstwhile carnivore marketplace “perfectly.”
“The world is that nary 1 knows what happens next,” helium acknowledged.
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