Bitcoin most oversold since 2020 crash: Can BTC rebound to $70K next?

Bitcoin (BTC) is present flashing its astir oversold awesome since the COVID-19 crash, raising the likelihood of a alleviation rebound toward $70,000 successful the coming weeks.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s regular RSI has dropped to astir 15.5, its astir oversold speechmaking since the March 2020 COVID crash.
• Similar oversold RSI readings successful 2020 and February 2026 preceded crisp alleviation rebounds of astir 50% and 30%, respectively.

BTC refuses to spell nether $60,000 amid utmost oversold conditions

As of Saturday, Bitcoin’s regular comparative spot scale (RSI) stood adjacent 15.5, good beneath the 30 level that typically marks oversold conditions and its lowest speechmaking since the March 2020 marketplace crash.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: TradingView

The highly oversold speechmaking followed a astir 30% diminution successful BTC implicit the past month, arsenic geopolitical risks, higher lipid prices, fading hopes for a 2026 Federal Reserve complaint cut, and panic implicit Strategy’s latest Bitcoin sale weighed connected sentiment.

Oversold readings this utmost often look adjacent seller-exhaustion zones wherever short-term buyers statesman positioning for a alleviation rebound.

In 2020, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to astir 15.56 earlier BTC rebounded by astir 50%, helped by the Federal Reserve’s exigency displacement to near-zero involvement rates and large-scale enslaved purchases.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: TradingView

However, Bitcoin has besides staged crisp rebounds from profoundly oversold RSI levels without large macro catalysts.

In February 2026, for instance, BTC’s regular RSI dropped to astir 15.86 portion terms held supra the $60,000 enactment area. The awesome preceded a astir 30% betterment toward $82,850.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin bulls are again defending $60,000, with bears failing to unafraid a decisive breakdown contempt high-volume selling.

Holding supra this level increases the likelihood of an oversold bounce successful the coming weeks toward the 20-day exponential moving mean (20-day EMA, the greenish line) astatine astir $70,650.

Conversely, a decisive interruption beneath $60,000 would weaken the rebound setup and unfastened the doorway to a deeper driblet toward the mid-$50,000s, wherever Bitcoin whitethorn look for an oversold bounce.

Bitcoin bottommost is close: Analyst

Bitcoin short-term holders are realizing their largest losses connected record, according to Checkonchain information cited by crypto expert Scott Melker.

The short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio has dropped to a caller all-time low, falling beneath levels seen successful erstwhile Bitcoin drawdowns.

Bitcoin short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio vs. price. Source: Checkonchain

The metric tracks whether caller buyers are selling astatine a nett oregon loss. A profoundly antagonistic speechmaking means newer holders are exiting beneath their outgo basis, signaling panic selling.

Melker besides noted that astir 5.3 cardinal BTC held by semipermanent holders is present underwater, supra the post-FTX highest and the highest level since the March 2020 COVID crash.

Related: Chance of caller Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ arsenic semipermanent holders’ proviso tops 15M BTC

Similar accent has appeared adjacent past capitulation zones. Bitcoin bottomed adjacent $15,500 aft FTX earlier rallying astir 690% to astir $126,000 successful 2025. After the COVID crash, BTC roseate astir 1,700% from $3,800 to astir $69,000.

"Sentiment has tracked terms astir perfectly," Melker said, adding:

"Traders were euphoric astatine the May peak, past deed highest despair connected June 3. That’s usually erstwhile the bottommost is close. Usually."