Bitcoin Slides as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade: Crypto Daybook Americas

16 hours ago

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The upwind seems to beryllium coming retired of the crypto market's sails. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3% successful the past 24 hours, dropping beneath $115,000, and it's really 1 of the amended performing of the largest cryptocurrencies.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, a measurement of the broader market, fell 6% with ether (ETH) down 5.7% aft posting its strongest monthly summation successful 3 years and XRP (XRP) losing much than 7%.

The driblet comes arsenic immoderate of President Donald Trump’s tariffs started taking effect with much owed to footwear successful connected Aug. 7. The levies scope from 10% to 41% connected imports from cardinal trading partners including Canada, the European Union and Japan.

That sent Asian equity markets to their worst week since April and fueled a rally successful the U.S. dollar, sending the dollar scale supra 100 for the archetypal clip since May.

The tariffs besides pushed up the Federal Reserve’s preferred ostentation measure, the core PCE, to 2.8% year-over-year successful June. That summation has dampened hopes for a simplification successful involvement rates successful September. Polymarket traders moved from a perceived 56% accidental of a complaint chopped to present 38%. The CME’s FedWatch instrumentality shows a 39% chance.

"For crypto, looser fiscal conditions would beryllium a large tailwind,” said 21Shares strategist Matt Mena successful an emailed statement.

Today’s nonfarm payrolls information could beryllium decisive. The study is expected to the U.S. system created 110,000 jobs past month.

Options traders are already seeking extortion from further declines.

“We’re seeing accrued short-term bearish positioning connected BTC with capped upside strategies,” said Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader astatine Wintermute. “ETH options into precocious August are notably different, with positioning balanced to adjacent outright bullish.”

If economical information points to higher rates for longer, traders whitethorn pivot toward assets that payment from tighter conditions. A stronger dollar and higher involvement rates could nudge investors toward yield-bearing stablecoins oregon transparent ETH-based vaults, fixed the GENIUS Act’s transition into law. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto
- Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), present moving connected Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting yearly caller token issuance to 7.5 cardinal HNT.
- Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing authorities to modulate stablecoin activities successful the city.
- Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs volition motorboat BTCD, which it says is the archetypal afloat bitcoin-backed stablecoin, connected the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain secured by merged mining with bitcoin and overseen by the Elastos Foundation.
- Aug. 4: Solana Mobile begins worldwide shipping of its Seeker Web3 mobile device.
- Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
- Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives volition launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
Macro
- Aug. 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July employment data.
  - Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 147K
  - Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.1%
  - Government Payrolls Prev. 73K
  - Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -3K vs. Prev. -7K
- Aug. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Brazil.
  - Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.3
- Aug. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Canada.
  - Manufacturing PMI Prev. 45.6
- Aug. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) July manufacturing and services information for the U.S.
  - Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 52.9
- Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services assemblage data.
  - Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49
- Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) July U.S. user sentiment data.
  - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 62 vs. Prev. 60.7
- Aug. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services information for Mexico.
  - Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
- Aug. 1 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases July user terms ostentation data.
  - Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.13%
  - Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69%
- Aug. 6, 12:01 a.m.: A 50% U.S. tariff connected astir Brazilian imports, announced successful President Trump's July 30 enforcement order, goes into effect.
- Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined successful President Trump’s July 31 enforcement order go effectual for a wide scope of trading partners that did not unafraid deals by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs scope from 15% to 41%, depending connected the country.
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
- Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22
- Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
- Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
- Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
- Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
- Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
- Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
- Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
- Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
- Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
- Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
- Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

Governance votes & calls
- NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators indispensable o.k. the connection for it to walk and, if if it does, it could beryllium implemented by precocious Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
- Venus DAO is voting connected a 12-month renewal with Chaos Labs for the BNB Chain deployment astatine a outgo of $400,000, focused connected expanding the Risk Oracle strategy for real-time, automated hazard parameter updates. Voting ends Aug. 1.
- Compound DAO is voting to select its adjacent Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing betwixt ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
Unlocks
- Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $23.36 million.
- Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating proviso worthy $12.26 million.
- Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating proviso worthy $47.95 million.
- Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating proviso worthy $36.52 million.
- Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.42 million.
- Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.78 million.
Token Launches
- Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to beryllium listed connected Kraken.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

The non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace betterment is good underway with CryptoPunks, the ascendant collection, seeing its level terms successful dollar presumption deed a three-year high, according to NFTPriceFloor.
The full marketplace capitalization of NFTs has astir doubled to $6.4 cardinal successful conscionable a month, according to CoinGecko data.
The rally was led by the CryptoPunks, which roseate 33.3% implicit the period. Other collections, specified arsenic the Pudgy Penguins, besides helped.
CryptoPunks' summation took it adjacent 30% of the full marketplace capitalization of the NFT sector. In ETH terms, the 52 ETH terms is the highest successful implicit a year.

Derivatives Positioning

The fig of unfastened contracts successful CME bitcoin modular futures has dropped to 27,699, representing 138,495 BTC, the lowest since April.
The superior formation could beryllium institutions preferring spot ETFs implicit futures oregon traders scaling backmost vulnerability arsenic the dollar's rally gathers speed.
Open involvement successful ether futures has fallen to 32,903 contracts from the caller precocious of 41,636. The ether declaration is sized astatine 50 ETH.
BTC and ETH OI remains elevated adjacent grounds highs successful offshore perpetual futures, with backing rates receding to nether 5%, a motion of weakening of bullish sentiment.
On Deribit, the marketplace sentiment has shifted against ether, with downside security premiums costlier than for bitcoin.

Market Movements

BTC is down 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday astatine $114,962.47 (24hrs: -2.92%)
ETH is down 3.09% astatine $3,619.49 (24hrs: -5.94%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 3.26% astatine 3,764.26 (24hrs: -6.05%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged astatine 2.94%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0026% (2.8448% annualized) connected Binance

DXY is up 0.25% astatine 100.22
Gold futures are unchanged astatine $3,345.70
Silver futures are down 0.67% astatine $36.47
Nikkei 225 closed down 0.66% astatine 40,799.60
Hang Seng closed down 1.07% astatine 24,507.81
FTSE is down 0.40% astatine 9,096.56
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.36% astatine 5,319.92
DJIA closed connected Thursday down 0.74% astatine 44,130.98
S&P 500 closed down 0.37% astatine 6,339.39
Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged astatine 21,122.45
S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.40% astatine 27,259.78
S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.71% astatine 2,563.84
U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 3.6 bps astatine 4.396%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.94% astatine 6,314.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.03% astatine 23,125.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.91% astatine 43,900.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 61.98% (0.41%)
Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03150 (-1.38%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 904 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $57.21
Total Fees: 3.96 BTC / $468,378
CME Futures Open Interest: 138,495 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 34.8 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.85%

Technical Analysis

The ether-bitcoin ratio's regular illustration shows a bearish divergence of the RSI. The signifier is marked by the indicator printing a little high, decoupling from the rising price, and suggests a weakening of the bullish momentum.
In different words, ether could underperform bitcoin successful the coming days.
The MACD histogram, a trend-following indicator, has besides turned negative

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Thursday astatine $401.86 (+1.73%), -4.2% astatine $385 astatine pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $377.76 (+0.07%), -11.15% astatine $335.65
Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $183.52 (-3.66%), -5.19% astatine $174
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $28.41 (-1.68%), -7.97% astatine $26.15
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $16.08 (-2.84%), -3.61% astatine $15.5
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $13.41 (-0.81%), -8.05% astatine $12.33
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $13.54 (+3.72%), -4.21% astatine $12.97
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.37 (-0.44%), -3.25% astatine $11
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $25.26 (+2.23%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $35.85 (-0.17%), -0.7% astatine $35.60
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $30.84 (+6.05%), -1.85% astatine $30.27
SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $18.81 (-3.83%), -6.11% astatine $17.66

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily nett flows: -$114.8 million
Cumulative nett flows: $54.97 billion
Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily nett flows: $17 million
Cumulative nett flows: $9.66 billion
Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 integer assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

full on-chain transportation volume. (Glassnode)

The full magnitude of USDT transferred on-chain has risen to $52.9 billion, the highest since aboriginal 2022.
It shows that a dilatory but accordant betterment successful stablecoin velocity and marketplace activity, according to Glassnode.
The 2021 crypto bull marketplace highest was marked by crisp spikes successful USDT velocity.

While You Were Sleeping

Donald Trump Reignites Global Trade War With Sweeping Tariff Regime (Financial Times): A 35% tariff connected Canadian non-USMCA goods begins Aug. 1, portion broader tariffs announced successful Thursday’s enforcement bid instrumentality effect Aug. 7 to let U.S. Customs clip to instrumentality them.
Bitcoin, Ether Start August connected a Shaky Note arsenic Dollar Index Tops 100; Yen Hits 4-Month Low Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls (CoinDesk): Major cryptocurrencies saw volatile trading arsenic a stronger dollar followed the caller tariffs, which whitethorn worsen ostentation and complicate the Fed’s way to cutting involvement rates.
Are Traders Done With Ether? Options Market Now Prices Higher Risk for ETH Than BTC (CoinDesk): Deribit information shows it present costs much to hedge ether than bitcoin, marking a sentiment displacement aft weeks of organization penchant for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
El Salvador Scraps Presidential Term Limits, Opening Door for Another Bukele Term (Reuters): The measure passed successful Congress Thursday allows indefinite re-election, extends statesmanlike presumption to six years, eliminates run-offs and shortens Bukele’s existent word to align each elections successful 2027.
Goldman Urges Caution arsenic Global Credit Spreads Hit 2007 Lows (Bloomberg): Although markets amusement confidence, strategists warned that investors whitethorn beryllium overlooking risks similar softening growth, delayed Fed complaint cuts, and uneven effects from commercialized argumentation — and advised keeping hedges successful place.
Bitcoin Holders Can Now Earn Automated Yield Via $2B Solv Protocol (CoinDesk): Solv’s BTC+ vault offers 4.5%–5.5% returns connected bitcoin done DeFi lending and protocol staking, automating output procreation and relieving holders from manually selecting and managing strategies.