Bitcoin to $140K by Month End? Bullish Hopes Remain Even as Tuesday Drop Sends ETH, XRP, SOL Down 5%

Bitcoin is holding astir $122,000 successful Wednesday’s Asian hours aft mounting a grounds precocious astatine $126,200 earlier this week, with immoderate marketplace watchers inactive expecting a surge to a grounds $140,000 aboriginal this month.

Economist Timothy Peterson said successful an X station Tuesday that bitcoin has a 50% probability of rising to $140,000, citing simulations that were based connected information from the past decade.

“There is simply a 50% accidental Bitcoin finishes the period supra $140k,” Peterson said successful an X station connected Wednesday. “But determination is simply a 43% accidental Bitcoin finishes beneath $136k.”

BTC is up astir 10% since the commencement of October, which has historically been 1 of the astir bullish periods for each fiscal assets. The determination has been driven by grounds ETF inflows and exodus of coins from centralized exchanges.

Exchange balances person dropped to a six-year debased of 2.83 cardinal BTC, with 170,000 coins withdrawn successful the past month. That premix of dependable organization buying and shrinking proviso has kept pullbacks shallow. The U.S-listed spot ETFs person added much than $60 cardinal since approvals successful January 2204, including $3.2 cardinal past week, the second-largest play intake connected record.

Trading desks enactment that the way of slightest absorption is inactive higher arsenic “Uptober” plays out. Besides, the outlook for S&P 500 remains constructive, supporting the bull lawsuit successful BTC.

“Options markets are pricing successful a feral 5% accidental for different 10% rally successful the SPX into year-end, and it’s progressively hard to find a antagonistic catalyst to counteract that view,” said Augustine Fan, caput of insights astatine SignalPlus, said successful a Telegram message. “We saw small abbreviated liquidation connected the caller spread up, suggesting participants are underweight with minimal hazard exposures.”

Still, the optimism is not without risk.

“The crypto marketplace is navigating a delicate equilibrium betwixt beardown method enactment and important macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Nick Ruck, manager astatine LVRG Research. “Accumulation trends and organization request person propelled prices to caller highs, but optimism is inactive exposed to surprises from the Fed.”

The lack of caller economical information releases owed to the ongoing U.S. authorities shutdown has depriving investors captious insights needed to marque caller allocations. Some observers are disquieted that deficiency of caller data, peculiarly inflation, whitethorn support the Fed from cutting rates.

When FOMC and Mag-7 net get aboriginal this month, the information volition collide with a marketplace already extended and leaning bullish. That volition determine if the adjacent determination is simply a cleanable tally to $140,000 oregon a reset further lower.

BTC's rally has paused successful the past 24 hours, acknowledgment to profit-taking. Prices person dropped much than 2%,, erasing a run-up since Sunday and pulling down XRP, Solana’s SOL, ether (ETH) and Cardano’s ADA down arsenic overmuch arsenic 7%.

BNB Chain’s BNB stands retired with 1.5% gains successful the aforesaid period, the lone wolf successful the greenish arsenic its underlying ecosystem sees a flurry of caller activity.

My lens: $125,000 is the conflict line. ETF request and whale withdrawals springiness the bulls a cushion, but the quiescent from macro volition not last.