Cryptoquant Researchers Warn Bitcoin’s April Rally Mirrors 2022 Bear Market Demand Pattern

Key Takeaways:

• Cryptoquant information shows bitcoin’s April 2026 rally from $66K to $79K was driven wholly by perpetual futures demand, with zero spot support.
• Bitcoin’s Cryptoquant Bull Score dropped from 50 to 40 by month’s end, signaling deteriorating onchain fundamentals aft the speculative run.
• Cryptoquant researchers pass that the existent request signifier mirrors 2022’s bear market onset, putting $79K absorption astatine hazard of further rejection.

Bitcoin Futures Traders Pushed BTC to $79K While Spot Demand Stayed Negative, Data Shows

According to Cryptoquant‘s latest report, bitcoin‘s evident request metric, which tracks the 30-day alteration successful estimated onchain spot buying activity, stayed antagonistic for the afloat duration of April’s terms run. Perpetual futures request expanded during the aforesaid model arsenic speculative traders pushed prices higher done leverage alternatively than nonstop coin accumulation.

Cryptoquant researchers picture the spread betwixt rising futures enactment and contracting spot request arsenic 1 of the clearest onchain signals that terms gains are speculative successful nature. When spot request falls portion terms climbs, the market’s marginal purchaser is positioned successful derivatives, not successful existent bitcoin.

The analyst’s phased breakdown of request information makes the dynamic hard to dispute. Each signifier of April’s rally showed higher perpetual futures request alongside antagonistic spot evident demand. This was not a lawsuit of spot buyers lagging down and catching up. Spot request actively contracted arsenic futures enactment climbed.

Cryptoquant marketplace strategists enactment that rallies with this operation thin to beryllium self-limiting. Without caller spot request to sorb elevated prices, the unwind of futures positioning becomes the superior operator of the adjacent decline.

The humanities parallel Cryptoquant researchers gully is nonstop and worthy taking seriously. The aforesaid request signature appeared astatine the onset of the 2022 carnivore market, erstwhile perpetual futures request expanded successful isolation portion spot evident request stayed successful contraction. That setup preceded a multi-month terms decline. Cryptoquant applies onchain request decomposition consistently crossed cycles and identifies this signifier arsenic a reliable aboriginal indicator of terms fragility.

Bitcoin has already begun pulling backmost from the April peak. Price slipped from $79,000 to $75,000 pursuing the rally’s high, a determination accordant with however futures-led rallies historically resoluteness erstwhile speculative positioning begins to unwind. As of Saturday, May 2, BTC is exchanging hands conscionable supra $78,000 aft trying again to scope the $80,000 mark.

Cryptoquant’s Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 successful April, crossing backmost beneath the neutral threshold and returning to bearish territory. The scale concisely reached 50, neutral ground, successful mid-April earlier sliding to 40 by month’s extremity contempt the 20% terms summation during that stretch. Cryptoquant describes a people of 40 arsenic conditions “getting bearish,” placing the marketplace successful a scope historically associated with continued terms weakness.

The Bull Score is simply a composite scale Cryptoquant builds from aggregate onchain and marketplace indicators, scaled from 0 to 100. Scores supra 50 bespeak bullish conditions. Scores beneath 50 bespeak bearish conditions. The marketplace enactment besides coincides with the U.S.-Iran conflict and geopolitical rumblings. Yesterday, Trump said the struggle was over, which gave bitcoin different boost alongside equities.

Cryptoquant analysts reason that without a reversal successful evident request from antagonistic to affirmative territory, immoderate propulsion backmost toward the $79,000 section highest volition deficiency the on-chain enactment needed to nutrient a sustained breakout.

The information does not warrant a repetition of 2022’s prolonged downturn, but Cryptoquant makes wide the existent request operation matches the humanities illustration of terms fragility, not accumulation.