Mixed Signals as ETFs Bleed Millions, Bitcoin, Ether Rise: Crypto Daybook Americas

5 days ago

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

While bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) prices person recouped a important information of past week's losses, hinting astatine a "buy the dip" resurgence, the latest ETF flows overgarment a antithetic picture.

On Monday, the 9 spot ether ETFs recorded full nett outflows of $465 cardinal — the largest connected grounds — pursuing Friday's $152 cardinal drawdown, according to SoSoValue. Bitcoin ETFs besides saw important outflows, bleeding $333 cardinal aft Friday's $812 million, suggesting that organization superior is not arsenic sanguine arsenic the spot market.

Meantime, long-term bullishness has evaporated from BTC options arsenic concerns of renewed U.S. ostentation and a labor-market slowdown measurement connected investors' hazard appetite.

On the flip side, immoderate analysts inactive clasp a mostly constructive marketplace outlook portion anticipating Fed interest-rate cuts.

"Despite the short-term volatility, structural information inactive suggests the U.S. is undergoing a maturation slowdown, not a afloat recession," Chloe Zheng, a probe expert astatine HTX, told CoinDesk. "Household indebtedness remains debased comparative to income, recognition accent is contained, and concern lending maturation continues. This premix of softening labour information and easing ostentation expectations historically precedes monetary easing — placing hazard assets similar BTC successful a high-volatility, liquidity-sensitive window."

Data from the CME's FedWatch instrumentality shows that traders person priced successful 3 complaint cuts by the January 2026 meeting, meaning the Fed is expected to little borrowing costs successful 3 retired of the adjacent 4 meetings.

According to Paul Howard, a elder manager astatine crypto market-making steadfast Wincent, caller crypto marketplace highs hinge connected Fed complaint cuts.

"The adjacent large portion of macro quality volition apt travel with U.S. complaint changes, perchance arsenic aboriginal arsenic September," Howare said. "If that does happen, past we tin expect prices to catapult done existent ATH arsenic inexpensive wealth looks for yield. My consciousness is BTC and the large alts would past spot beardown outperformance successful Q4."

Speaking of the broader market, on-chain stablecoin measurement deed a grounds precocious of implicit $1.5 trillion successful July, according to analytics steadfast Sentora. Uniswap v4, which debuted astatine the extremity of January, has surpassed $100 cardinal successful trading volume, according to information tracked by 21Shares.

In accepted markets, U.S. banal futures traded level to positive, indicating a dull unfastened pursuing Monday's 1.3% gain. The dollar scale traded somewhat higher adjacent 99.00, portion golden dropped to $3,360 per ounce, arsenic the freight marketplace cratered, sending a informing to the economy. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto
- Aug. 5, 1:30 p.m.: Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) volition big an AMA league connected Reddit. CEO Denelle Dixon, Chief Marketing Officer Jason Karsh and Chief Growth Officer José Fernández da Ponte, volition reply questions.
- Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle volition big a webinar, "The GENIUS Act Era Begins," featuring Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The league volition sermon the archetypal U.S. national outgo stablecoin model and its interaction connected crypto innovation and regulation.
- Aug. 15: Record day for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who conscionable pre-distribution requirements.
- Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives volition launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
Macro
- Aug. 5, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services assemblage data.
  - Services PMI Est. Est. 51.5 vs. Prev. 50.8
- Aug. 5, 2 p.m.: Uruguay's National Institute of Statistics releases July ostentation data.
  - Annual Inflation Rate Prev. 4.59%
- Aug. 6, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. tariff of 50% kicks successful connected astir Brazilian imports.
- Aug. 6, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook volition present a code titled “U.S. and Global Economy”. Livestream link.
- Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined successful President Trump’s July 31 executive order go effectual for a wide scope of trading partners that did not unafraid deals by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs scope from 15% to 41%, depending connected the country.
- Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July user terms ostentation data.
  - Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.39%
  - Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.24%
  - Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
  - Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.32%
- Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico's cardinal bank, Banco de México, announces its monetary argumentation decision.
  - Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8%
- Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler's resignation becomes effective, creating an aboriginal vacancy connected the Board of Governors that allows President Trump to nominate a successor.
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
- Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
- Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
- Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
- Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market
- Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
- Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
- Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
- Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
- Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
- Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
- Aug. 14 (TBC): Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market
- Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market
- Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market
- Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

Governance votes & calls
- Compound DAO is voting to select its adjacent Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing betwixt ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
- Balancer DAO is voting connected creating “Balancer Business,” a for-profit subsidiary of Balancer OpCo Ltd. This caller ineligible entity would formalize protocol interest absorption and on-chain operations, replacing the existent DAO multisig model. Voting ends Aug. 5.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for 2 much years starting September. The connection includes $6 cardinal successful backing and 15 cardinal ARB for incentives for Entropy to absorption connected treasury management, inducement design, information infrastructure, and ecosystem growth. Voting ends Aug. 7.
- BendDAO is voting connected a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards, and launching monthly buybacks utilizing 20% of protocol revenue. Voting ends Aug. 10
- Aug. 5, 1:30 p.m.: Stellar Development Foundation’s CEO, CMO, and Head of Strategy & Partnerships to enactment successful an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session connected Reddit.
- Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to big a governance call.
Unlocks
- Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating proviso worthy $12.40 million.
- Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating proviso worthy $48.07 million.
- Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating proviso worthy $37.45 million.
- Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $14.95 million.
- Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating proviso worthy $16.42 million.
- Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating proviso worthy $36.35 million.
- Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $91.6 million.
Token Launches
- Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to beryllium listed connected Kraken.
- Aug. 5: USDC, tron (TRX), ondo (ONDO), chainlink (LINK), cardano (ADA), and polkadot (DOT) to beryllium listed connected Arkham Exchange.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

Day 2 of 3: The Science of Blockchain Conference 2025 (Berkeley, California)
Aug. 6-7: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
Aug. 15: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Vancouver)
Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole, Wyoming)
Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)
Aug. 25-25: WebX 2025 (Tokyo)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

Hyperliquid closed its champion ever month, hitting $320 cardinal successful trading measurement successful July — a 47% summation driven by enactment successful ether and different altcoins .
The DEX besides broke past $15 cardinal successful full unfastened involvement for the archetypal time, with ETH unfastened involvement astir doubling month-on-month.
Hyperliquid consistently generated implicit $4 cardinal successful regular fees successful the period, with nary important dilatory days, reflecting grounds trader engagement.
With $597 cardinal successful TVL, the speech present commands astir 12% of Binance’s derivatives marketplace share, bolstered by whale enactment and high-leverage trades.
The platform's HYPE token slid to $38.54 aft astir touching $50 to people the extremity of its sustained rally.
HYPE unfastened involvement dropped to a one-month debased astatine $1.46 billion, with 70% of traders long, expanding chances of a coordinated liquidation flush.
Price find has shifted to outer exchanges, damping the reflexive momentum that powered HYPE’s aboriginal gains.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC's futures unfastened involvement dropped implicit 1% successful opposition to the accrued information successful futures tied to different large tokens, including ether and XRP.
Funding rates are hovering astatine an annualized 5%-10% for astir large coins, indicating a bullish positioning successful the market.
On Deribit, semipermanent BTC calls present commercialized astatine par with puts, signaling a bullish-to-neutral displacement successful sentiment. Block flows implicit Paradigm featured calendar spreads successful bitcoin, abbreviated straddles successful Aug. 8 expiry ETH options.

Market Movements

BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Monday astatine $114,615.76 (24hrs: 0.18%)
ETH is down 0.87% astatine $3,661.62 (24hrs: 2.9%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% astatine 3,839 (24hrs: +1.95%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps astatine 2.857%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0189% (20.69% annualized) connected KuCoin

DXY is up 0.18% astatine 98.97
Gold futures are down 0.39% astatine $3,413.10
Silver futures are up 0.13% astatine $37.38
Nikkei 225 closed up 0.64% astatine 40,549.54
Hang Seng closed up 0.68% astatine 24,902.53
FTSE is up 0.32% astatine 9,157.57
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.24% astatine 5,254.78
DJIA closed on Monday up 1.34% astatine 44,173.64
S&P 500 closed up 1.47% astatine 6,329.94
Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.95% astatine 21,053.58
S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.88% astatine 27,020.43
S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.72% at 2,572.27
U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is up 1.6 bps astatine 4.214%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% astatine 6,366.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% astatine 23,349.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.11% astatine 44,351.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 61.6% (0.27%)
Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03192 (-1.24%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 926 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $56.83
Total Fees: 3.33 BTC / $382,733
CME Futures Open Interest: 136,145 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 34 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.61%

Technical Analysis

The XRP/ETH ratio has carved retired a head-and-shoulders signifier connected the regular chart.
A interruption beneath the horizontal enactment enactment would corroborate a bearish inclination reversal, signaling ether outperformance comparative to XRP.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $389.24 (+6.17%), -0.42% astatine $387.59 pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $318.17 (+1.11%), unchanged pre-market.
Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $164.82 (-1.95%), -1.65% astatine $162.18.
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $28.89 (+7.48%), +5.23% astatine $30.40.
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $16.04 (+3.48%), -0.19% astatine $16.01
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.42 (+3.54%), unchanged.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $13.65 (+7.91%), +0.81% astatine $13.76.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $10.62 (+1.72%), +0.19% astatine $10.64.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $24.83 (+6.02%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $35.37 (+2.64%), unchanged.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $29.57 (+4.19%), unchanged.
SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $19.14 (+11.67%), +2.61% astatine $19.64.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily nett flows: -$323.5 cardinal
Cumulative nett flows: $53.83 cardinal
Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily nett flows: -$465.1 million
Cumulative nett flows: $9.04 billion
Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The U.S.-listed ether ETFs registered a grounds outflow of $465 cardinal connected Monday.
The deficiency of information via ETFs raises a question people connected the sustainability of ether's terms betterment since Sunday.

While You Were Sleeping

Base Network Suffers 1st Downtime Since 2023, Halts Operations for 29 Minutes (CoinDesk): The method responsibility was identified and resolved wrong minutes of investigation. The outage is notable fixed Base’s increasing value successful the Ethereum layer-2 ecosystem.
Bitcoin's Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market arsenic Inflation Concern Rises (CoinDesk): Bitcoin options marketplace indicators amusement semipermanent sentiment has turned from bullish to neutral arsenic analysts pass that U.S. ostentation information whitethorn complicate imaginable complaint cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Trump’s BLS Firing Tests Wall Street’s Reliance connected Government Data (The Wall Street Journal): Some investors are questioning the reliability of U.S. ostentation and jobs information aft Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer, raising semipermanent concerns astir the transparency and credibility of economical reporting.
A Year Ago Today, Bitcoin Hit $49K connected Yen Carry Trade Unwind, Now It's Up 130% (CoinDesk): Over the past year, bitcoin rebounded alongside equities and golden contempt rising enslaved yields, portion semipermanent holders doubled their stock of supply, signaling stronger condemnation done heightened marketplace volatility.
Brazil’s Supreme Court Places Bolsonaro Under House Arrest (The New York Times): The justice said Bolsonaro showed "contempt for judicial decisions" by utilizing allies’ societal media accounts to scope supporters, and ordered constabulary to prehend his telephone and restrict visits to his home.
Gold Hovers Near Two-Week High arsenic Weak U.S. Jobs Data Raises Rate-Cut Bets (Reuters): An OANDA expert said gold’s caller spot reflects interest-rate chopped expectations, but further upside whitethorn beryllium constricted without a stronger catalyst to flooded method absorption adjacent $3,450.