Polymarket Study Finds 3.14% Drive Accuracy

Key Takeaways:

• Researchers from London Business School and Yale recovered lone 3.14% of Polymarket accounts suffice arsenic skilled, yet make astir terms discovery.
• Skilled Polymarket traders retained their classification 44% of the clip out-of-sample, compared to conscionable 10% for skilled communal funds.
• The CFTC filed an insider trading ailment connected April 23, 2026 tied to a Polymarket declaration connected Nicolas Maduro’s removal from power.

Study Published to SSRN Covers 98,906 Events connected Polymarket

The working paper, titled “ Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom oregon Informed Minority?” was published connected April 20, 2026, connected SSRN and revised connected April 25, 2026. It was authored by Roberto Gomez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, and Howard Kung of London Business School, and Theis Ingerslev Jensen of Yale University.

The researchers analyzed the implicit transaction past connected Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market by trading volume. The survey covered 98,906 events, 210,322 markets, and $13.76 cardinal successful full trading volume crossed 1.72 cardinal accounts.

Using a statistical method called a sign-randomization test, the authors classified traders into chiseled groups based connected whether their profits reflected genuine accomplishment oregon random chance.

The findings chopped against a wide held assumption. Prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket itself, regularly picture their accuracy arsenic the merchandise of corporate quality from a divers radical of participants. The survey straight challenges that framing.

Only 3.14% of Polymarket accounts qualified arsenic skilled winners. These traders earned persistent profits that held up retired of sample, traded crossed an mean of 79 markets each, and consistently positioned successful the absorption of last outcomes. The remaining 96% of accounts either broke adjacent by luck oregon mislaid money.

The authors recovered that skilled traders’ bid travel predicted some next-period terms changes and last marketplace outcomes astatine statistically important levels. A one-percentage-point summation successful skilled nett buying corresponded to an 8 ground constituent summation successful the probability of the close last outcome. Lucky winners, contempt posting affirmative relationship balances, showed nary meaningful predictive powerfulness successful either test.

Polymarket‘s monthly trading volume climbed from $3.3 cardinal successful December 2023 to $1.98 cardinal successful December 2025, a astir 600-fold summation implicit 2 years. Over the aforesaid period, progressive accounts expanded from astir 1,600 to much than 519,000. Despite that growth, the attraction of accomplishment remained narrow.

The survey besides tested accomplishment persistence. Researchers divided events randomly into grooming and trial sets. Among traders classified arsenic skilled successful training, 44% retained that classification successful the trial set. For unskilled losers, 51% remained successful that category. By comparison, skilled communal funds successful a parallel trial retained their classification lone 10% of the time. The authors picture prediction markets arsenic showing unusually precocious persistence of some accomplishment and anti-skill.

Skilled traders besides responded archetypal erstwhile scheduled quality arrived. In tests covering Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements and firm net releases, lone the skilled radical shifted its bid imbalance successful the absorption of the quality astonishment wrong a constrictive model astir each release. Other groups showed nary accordant response. The insubstantial separately examined insider trading.

Researchers identified 1,950 accounts that met timing and condemnation criteria, suggesting they traded connected non-public information. These accounts averaged astir $15,000 successful profits each and had ample terms effects erstwhile they did trade. One documented lawsuit progressive 3 accounts that took positions successful a declaration tied to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro hours earlier a concealed U.S. subject cognition connected Jan. 3, 2026, collectively earning much than $630,000.

On April 23, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a ailment alleging that an active-duty U.S. Army work subordinate engaged successful insider trading utilizing 1 of those accounts. Despite those terms effects, the researchers concluded that insider enactment was excessively concentrated successful isolated events to relationship for wide terms find crossed the platform.

The bulk of participants, the survey found, funded accuracy alternatively than produced it. Unlucky and unskilled losers made up 67% of each accounts and absorbed the entirety of aggregate losses. Market makers and skilled takers unneurotic represented less than 3.5% of accounts but captured much than 30% of full gains.

The authors reason that prediction market accuracy reflects the behaviour of a small, identifiable radical of informed traders whose information is the mechanics down terms formation. Whether those traders proceed participating arsenic platforms turn and fees summation remains an unfastened question the insubstantial leaves for aboriginal research.