Underdog’s UDX Hits $1.2M Day, About 5% of Estimated Companywide Flow

Existing customers springiness UDX a caput start

Underdog’s recently launched UDX prediction speech recorded a reported $1.2 cardinal successful notional trading measurement connected Monday, July 27, according to figures published connected the exchange’s market-data feed and first reported by InGame. The milestone came 10 days aft UDX processed its archetypal trial trades July 17 and 9 days aft Underdog publically announced the motorboat of its wholly owned exchange.

Notional measurement counts some sides of each trade, truthful the fig is not equivalent to lawsuit handle, the magnitude traders really stake. The opening show advances the motorboat described from the mediate of July when, UDX had self-certified its archetypal 7 shot and hoops declaration templates with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but the filings established lone a planned motorboat day and did not corroborate that nationalist trading had begun.

The $1.2 cardinal time is meaningful for a venue that had been operating for little than 2 weeks, though it represents lone a tiny information of Underdog’s wider prediction-market business. CEO Jeremy Levine presented $4.4 cardinal successful companywide prediction-market measurement for 2026 during a July 17 CNBC interview, equivalent to an mean of astir $22.2 cardinal per calendar time done that date. On that basis, UDX’s July 27 measurement was astir 5.4% of Underdog’s mean regular activity.

That calculation is an estimation alternatively than a nonstop measurement of July 27 routing, and its 2 main distortions tally successful other directions. Underdog’s existent late-July travel is astir apt higher than the yearly average, since Levine described the World Cup arsenic a large driver, which would propulsion UDX’s existent stock beneath 5.4%. Working the different way, UDX’s opening trades were concentrated successful Major League Baseball consecutive contracts, portion the companywide fig includes third-party venues wherever operation products are already available. A precise market-share fig would necessitate Underdog’s July 27 lawsuit measurement breached down among UDX, Kalshi and Crypto.com’s Derivatives North America exchange, besides known arsenic Nadex.

Underdog entered the speech concern with infrastructure and organisation that astir caller trading venues lack, having already spent months giving customers entree to prediction markets done Crypto.com and Kalshi earlier it acquired Aristotle Exchange’s designated declaration marketplace and clearinghouse from PredictIt successful March. Underdog besides operates a registered futures committee merchant, allowing it to transportation lawsuit accounts and way orders wrong the aforesaid firm structure.

That setup appears to person helped UDX debar launching with an bare bid book. The speech established a market-maker program earlier opening, portion Underdog could spot its caller venue wrong an app already utilized by prediction-market customers. UDX, therefore, faced little of the accustomed occupation successful which a caller speech needs traders to make liquidity but needs liquidity to pull traders. The CFTC certified the archetypal market-maker programme connected July 2.

Underdog has not, however, replaced its extracurricular speech relationships: its existent lawsuit rules notation to UDX, Kalshi, and Crypto.com/Nadex arsenic abstracted providers and authorities that settlement tin depend connected which speech lists a contract. The documentation supports a multivenue exemplary successful which Underdog controls immoderate listings portion continuing to way different customers oregon products elsewhere.

That favoritism besides limits however Underdog’s larger measurement claims should beryllium interpreted. Levine said the institution had processed $6.49 cardinal successful prediction-market travel since entering the class successful September 2025, but astir each of that enactment predates UDX’s motorboat and was routed to third-party exchanges. The fig measures Underdog’s scope arsenic an intermediary, not trading performed connected its ain exchange.

The self-certified parlay contracts for UDX connected July 28, successful a CFTC submission dated the erstwhile day, bespeak operation markets could statesman listing arsenic soon arsenic July 29. Such products already relationship for an estimated 30% to 40% of Kalshi’s regular volume, truthful their accomplishment would rise UDX totals for compositional reasons arsenic good arsenic immoderate genuine migration of lawsuit travel – making consequent single-day figures hard to comparison against this one.

Underdog is pursuing a way Draftkings took successful June, erstwhile it launched DKeX connected a CFTC licence obtained done its Railbird Technologies acquisition and ended its reliance connected CME Group and Crypto.com. Polymarket US self-certified its ain parlay-style contracts successful May, and some DraftKings and Robinhood accrued the stock of measurement moving done their in-house venues during their opening weeks. The larger commercialized trial for Underdog is whether the institution tin determination a meaningful information of its estimated $20 million-plus mean regular travel distant from extracurricular venues.